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A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that split the country and unleashed disorder, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is prepared.

That represents the warning from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."

Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue

The pair have examined the political, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.

"What concerns all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."

Legal Framework

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a referendum.

Lack of Serious Debate

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of serious debate, noted the journalist.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in academia but scarcely any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unity or the current situation. They writes two essays that seek objectivity in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and social figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.

Discussions cover flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and provoke dialogue.

"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," said the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."

Dual Referendums

A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate say they prefer unity but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to recognise unionists' British culture.

"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.

Likelihood of Public Vote

McBride thinks a national vote in his era is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified arguments, he said. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will eventually not succeed but each side has got something to gain from the other's viewpoints."

Appeal for More Extensive Debate

Westminster must engage with the debate, stated the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."